What Now, Philippines?
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Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. and family (Source: Getty Images)
While Marcos Jr. appears certain to win the top elective post, we believe his victory rests on shaky ground.
After all, Bongbong Marcos is the son of Ferdinand Marcos Sr., who was elected president in 1965 and was re-elected in 1969 for a second term that should have ended in 1973. But Marcos Sr. declared martial law in September 1972, claiming that a nascent Maoist rebellion had gotten out of hand and threatened to overturn the country's democratic institutions.
Ferdinand E. Marcos in 1972 (Photo by Slim Aarons)
Marcos Sr. abolished Congress, ruled by decree and imprisoned dissenters, including his arch-critic, Sen. Benigno "Ninoy" Aquino, who was later assassinated right on the tarmac of the Manila International Airport when he returned to the country in August 1983 from prolonged exile in the United States.
The Marcos dictatorship—marked by massive human rights abuses by state security forces, accumulation of ill-gotten wealth by the family and cronies, a gargantuan foreign debt and economic collapse—did not end until February 1986 when millions gathered in what the world now knows as the People Power revolt that sent the entire Marcos family into exile in Hawaii until his death in 1989.
An anti-Marcos rally held before the Marcos ouster in 1986 (Photo by Romy Gacad, AFP)
At 64, Marcos Jr. apparently decided to run for president in the last quarter of 2021 ostensibly to redeem the family name, probably thinking that now is his only chance to do so before he turns 70 by the next presidential election in 2028.
Two track-campaign
Marcos Jr. basically pursued a two-track approach in his campaign: "positive" in public, but insidiously "negative" in private.
His campaign strategy rested first, on historical revisionism: that martial law led to the country's "Golden Age" with various infrastructure projects built that allowed the economy to prosper like never before.
Also part of his public persona was to say that he had nothing to apologize for amid allegations of human rights abuses, including arrest and detention of critics and dissenters, torture, and involuntary disappearances under martial law during his father's dictatorial rule.
He also stoutly denied that his family had amassed ill-gotten wealth despite the recovery of part of the estimated $5-10 billion loot by the Presidential Commission on Good Government (PCGG) tasked by his successor, President Cory Aquino, to look far and wide for stolen money.
As the campaign gathered steam, Marcos Jr. also had to parry questions from persistent critics about his college education, non-payment of income taxes when he occupied local positions, non-payment of estate taxes amounting to P203 billion, and his camp employing an army of trolls paid with ill-gotten wealth spreading disinformation /misinformation in various social media platforms, such as Facebook, Twitter and TikTok, to project him as the inheritor of a glorious Marcos legacy.
(Source: Pixabay)
That disinformation/misinformation campaign also involved a systematic attack against his main rival, Leni Robredo, as incompetent and weak even as she had already defeated him in the vice-presidential contest in 2016.
Marcos Jr. also shunned participation in public debates, claiming that he would rather talk to the people directly in campaign sorties throughout the country instead of replying to questions intended to embarrass him or put him on the spot.
Hence, once Marcos Jr. is officially declared the winner and returns to Malacañan Palace starting July 1, he will have his hands full in the next six years answering questions about his priorities and goals.
First, he will have to explain at least in broad strokes when he takes his oath of office his over-all program of government, including fighting corruption and addressing poverty.
Filipinos would want to know how he will fight corruption in all its forms, from plunder and crony capitalism to bribery from the national down to the street levels.
He should also elaborate on what political reforms he would undertake, such as those relating to the proliferation of political dynasties and the bastardization of the party-list system.
Another important issue is how he would solve the armed rebellion by the CPP-NPA-NDF. Would he agree, for instance, to the resumption of peace talks with the rebel group or launch an all-out war against them? Or perhaps pursue the tack being taken by the National Task Force on Ending Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTF-ELCAC) on giving emphasis to local peace talks and urging rebels to surrender and return to the fold of the law in exchange for livelihood assistance?
Another question: Will he govern just like his father and unhesitatingly resort to emergency rule or martial law when faced with massive opposition? After all, he will have immense powers, including full control over the armed forces and the police.
Marcos Jr. can also appoint his own people to key positions, from the department secretaries down to undersecretaries and heads of various government-owned corporations. Will he appoint the best and the brightest and avoid the pitfall of getting relatives, friends and classmates to fill up juicy positions in government? Will he appoint only those with integrity, competence, work experience in their area of expertise and track record in public office?
He will also have to work with a legislature that consists of elected lawmakers from various political persuasions and points of view. Will they be allowed to take independent positions on key issues or always take the cue from the Palace on legislative priorities?
Marcos Jr. also has the power to appoint people to the Supreme Court and the Court of Appeals. Will he respect their independence as well or try to influence their decisions on important cases, including those on the recovery of alleged ill-gotten wealth?
“Marcos Jr. basically pursued a two-track approach in his campaign: “positive” in public, but insidiously “negative” in private.”
And on the issue of foreign policy, how would Marcos Jr. deal with Beijing on the crucial issue of the territorial dispute in the South China Sea amid the 2016 ruling of the Permanent Arbitral Tribunal favoring the Philippine position on the issue?
Apart from relations with Beijing, how will Marcos Jr. deal with Washington and the Biden administration? Who will he send to Washington as Philippine ambassador to thresh out bilateral issues and concerns?
And finally, if national unity is what he wants to achieve, how would he deal with the millions who voted for Robredo and the other candidates? Will he try to win them over in the spirit of national reconciliation and unity, as he promised early on, or alienate them by completely ignoring their views and recommendations on key issues?
Vice President Leni Robredo addressing supporters the day after the elections (Source: Philstar.com)
Just as important, how will a Marcos Jr. administration tackle economic issues?
Two think-tanks—FocusEconomics, based in Barcelona, and GoldmanSachs, based in New York, have taken a dim view of the economic prospects under a government run by Marcos Jr.
FocusEconomics believes that he has been unable to present clear economic policies in contrast to the detailed policy platform of Leni Robredo. “Investor perceptions of Marcos appear weak, raising market jitters; in a recent Bloomberg poll, most economists preferred a Robredo presidency given Marcos Jr.’s poor record during his six years as senator...Perhaps the most salient aspect of Marcos Jr.’s economic policy platform is its lack of clarity.”
The think-tank pointed out that Marcos Jr. had “refused to conduct traditional pre-election debates and has participated in few interviews.”
“The website for his candidature contains no clear overview of his policy pledges. Meanwhile, his record in office is generally considered to be poor — nearly 70 percent of the laws he pursued in the Senate were connected with festivals and holidays, renaming roads and redrawing borders of provinces and cities, according to the New York Times. This suggests the potential for lackluster governance if elected and could feed into investor uncertainty, dampening private investment,” FocusEconomics said.
The New-York-based investment banking firm GoldmanSachs also noted that Marcos Jr.'s plans for the country’s economic future appeared to be a continuation of Duterte policies in general. It said the Marcos Jr. campaign had signaled broad continuity with current administration policies, such as the “Build, Build, Build” infrastructure program.
GoldmanSach’s Asia team based in Singapore noted that the next administration needs to make clear policy choices, including prudent fiscal improvement amid rising public debt, external financing constraints, and adverse impacts of global price shocks.
“Marcos has sounded a less cautionary note on rising public debt levels, while emphasizing measures such as subsidizing key agricultural inputs or capping key food prices to contain inflation risks, alongside initiatives to revitalize the industrial sector and SMEs to provide more jobs,” it said.
The think-tank FocusEconomics believes that “the policy platform of Leni Robredo—who as vice president rolled out a major anti-poverty program and managed part of the government’s COVID-19 response—contains far greater detail (than those of Marcos Jr.). Some of Robredo’s key policies are cracking down on corruption, reducing red tape and strengthening the antitrust watchdog in order to improve market competition and the ease of doing business. Her pledges also include boosting investment in climate change adaptation and high-tech companies—suggesting a forward-looking agenda—plus beefing up the unemployment insurance scheme.”
Robredo had also criticized the gargantuan foreign debt contracted during the Duterte administration to deal with COVID-19 and to finance infrastructure projects.
Robredo's "Angat BuhayPilipino " platform, or upliftment of the quality of life of Filipinos, especially those living on the "laylayan" or margins of society, resonated with many people, enough to bring them coming in droves to her campaign rallies that kept growing in numbers as the campaign progressed. In her "miting de avance" or last campaign rally held on May 7 in the Makati business district, an estimated one million attendees intently listened to what she had to say on the political, economic and social reforms she wanted to implement if given the mandate by the people.
Leni Robredo and Kiko Pangilinan’s miting de avance in Makati City (Source: Manila Bulletin)
Rally crowds, however, are only an indication of popular support; what matters is the numbers generated on Election Day. If she lost the race, it could well be the result of failure to overcome the systematic black propaganda and falsehoods unleashed against her even before the election campaign that did not let up in both traditional and social media until Election Day.
The other contests
The initial results of the May 9 political exercise indicate the continued dominance of traditional politicians in the country.
In the Senate race, the initial frontrunners are actor Robin Padilla; former Sen. Loren Legarda; broadcast journalist Raffy Tulfo; former House Speaker Alan Peter Cayetano; former Sen. Chiz Escudero; former Public Works Secretary Mark Villar; reelectionist senators Sherwin Gatchalian, Juan Miguel Zubiri, Joel Villanueva and Risa Hontiveros (the lone oppositionist); as well as former senators Jinggoy Estrada and half-brother Estrada Ejercito. Some of these likely winners—and those still with three years to go as incumbent senators—do not inspire confidence at all that the Senate can regain its former status as a forum for intelligent debate and forward-looking ideas and programs.
Actor Robin Padilla leads the 2022 Philippine Senate race (Source Inquirer.net)
Those unlikely to make it to the winning column include detained reelectionist Sen. Leila de Lima; reelectionist Sen. Richard Gordon; former Sen. Sonny Trillanes; former Rep. Teddy Baguilat; and human rights lawyers Chel Diokno and Neri Colmenares. This is unfortunate as they could ably defend democratic rights and reject any attempt to restore dictatorship and authoritarianism in any form.
In the congressional race and at the provincial, city and town levels, we can expect most of the traditional politicians and members of political dynasties to win, given their vast resources and name recall. Again, this is disturbing as these politicians are likely to merely protect the status quo and keep themselves in power for as long as they can. But there's also cause for optimism as young politicians like Pasig City Mayor Vico Sotto have proved themselves capable of curbing corruption and truly serving their constituents.
Where do we go from here?
The recent no-holds-barred election under a multiparty system that emphasizes personalities and promises of change rather than sound and coherent platforms of governance does not augur well for the future of Philippine democracy and the strengthening of democratic institutions consisting of the executive, legislative and judicial branches of government.
What Marcos Jr.'s triumph in the presidential race indicates is that many Filipinos have already forgotten—or forgiven—the ill-gotten wealth of the Marcos family, crony capitalism, and human rights abuses under martial law.
If that's the case, and Marcos Jr. pursues a path that borrows heavily from his father's playbook, expect another dark period in our contemporary history that could possibly mean human rights violations and greater poverty and income inequality. We hope not.
I'm sure that the supporters of Vice President Leni Robredo who had the competence, track record and moral authority to lead the nation are crestfallen that she can no longer make a big difference in the lives of ordinary Filipinos as her accomplishments had done since she assumed office as vice president in 2016. But she should still continue to provide moral leadership to Filipinos and strive to make significant contributions to making inclusive and participatory democracy work in this country in the years ahead.
Ernesto M. Hilario studied Political Science at the University of the Philippines and has worked for various government agencies, NGOs and mainstream media since 1978. He writes a regular column for the Manila Standard broadsheet and also works as a freelance writer-editor.
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