Unmasking Trump’s Election Loss
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Donald Trump speaking at a rally (Photo by Gage Skidmore/Creative Commons)
As of February 2020, Donald Trump was a 70 percent odds-on favorite to win re-election. His political base, comprised of Midwestern blue collar workers, Christian evangelicals, senior citizens and conspiracy theorists, was formidable. Add to his ardent supporters the politically indifferent who just cared about growing their 401K retirement portfolio and IRA funds. He was the incumbent Commander-in-Chief of the most powerful armed forces in the world and controlled the vast American bureaucracy with its near-unlimited resources. He had amassed a substantial campaign war chest with the ability to raise more funds from Republican bigwigs.
Political indifference?
And then the COVID-19 pandemic reached American shores. The number of U.S. cases and deaths speaks for itself. The premier nation in the planet has the most confirmed cases of any country and with the most reported fatalities--approximately 20 percent of the world’s cases and deaths even if it only has 4 percent of the global population. It’s a textbook example of mismanagement by any reasonable standard.
During the covid-19 pandemic, masks and personal protective equipment have become the norm (Photo by Ascalon Studios/Creative Commons)
I don’t think most Americans blamed Trump for the virus. But many faulted him for the cavalier, nonchalant approach in combating it. Rather than reaching out to the millions of victims and their families, he adopted an “it is what it is” attitude. This seeming indifference turned off a lot of independent voters especially as the unabated spread of COVID-19 resulted in multifarious consequences.
Compounding the COVID-19 disaster was his divisive if not dismissive reaction to the senseless deaths of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor and other Black Lives martyrs. Instead of preaching a healing message of unity, he doubled down on his disruptive rhetoric that catered to his political base.
Political repudiation?
So, it was not surprising that he lagged behind in the run-up to the November elections. All of the major U.S. polling groups (including Fox News) predicted a Democratic tsunami: Not only would the Democrats win back the White House, but they would also wrest control of the Senate and expand their majority in the House of Representatives.
Yet, the “Blue wave” tanked. The Democrat landslide slowed. The control of the Senate did not only fail to materialize (at least not yet as of this writing depending on who wins the two Senate run-off elections in Georgia on January 5, 2021), but their edge in the House of Representatives shrank from 35 to 10. And with the nomination of three re-elected Democrat Representatives -- Cedric Richmond of Louisiana, Marcia Fudge of Ohio and Deb Haaland of New Mexico -- to the Biden cabinet, their majority would dwindle to a shaky seven.
Crowds gather outside the White House on election day (Photo by Ted Eytan/Creative Commons)
So, notwithstanding Trump’s flippancy about COVID-19, the seriousness of its consequences in lives lost and affected, its impact on health care and the economy and his unsympathetic and unpresidential behavior, was he really repudiated in the polls?
He lost by 4.5 percentage points. By way of comparison, in 1964, President Lyndon Johnson trounced Senator Barry Goldwater by 22.5 percentage points while President Ronald Reagan handily beat Vice President Walter Mondale by 17 percentage points in 1984. Trump received close to 74.2 million votes, the second highest received by a candidate in U.S. Presidential history, next of course to Biden’s 81 million. Note as well that Trump received roughly 10 million votes more than his 2016 total.
Take a look at it from another perspective. Biden/Harris narrowly won three States--Wisconsin (20,682), Arizona (10,457 votes) and Georgia (11,779 votes). Had these 42,921 votes swung to the Republican side, then the electoral college count would have been tied at 269 votes each for both candidates. If that were the case, then the House of Representatives would decide who would become President. And since the Republican Party controls 26 of the 50 State delegations In the House, then Trump/Pence would have been re-elected.
So, had Trump regularly worn a mask, he could have been seen as listening to the experts and following science, perceived to be setting a good example to the nation and sympathetic to the plight of the COVID- 19 victims. Could behaving otherswise have been the deciding factor in the 2020 elections?
Way forward
President-elect Biden is inheriting a fractured nation. The continuing siege against the veracity of the 2020 elections coupled with the Trump administration’s authoritarian and populist tactics have impacted not only how Americans view their elections but how the world sees the state of American democracy. Certain Republican Senators and House Representatives contesting the States’ Electoral College certification is highly unusual. Trump’s refusal to concede is anathema to its democratic tradition for an orderly transfer of power and highlights a divided image of “two Americas.”
But the elections unveiled a silver lining. Noteworthy is how American democratic institutions particularly the judicial branch conducted itself amidst the slew of 50 odd cases filed by Trump’s legal team. Regardless of whether they were appointed by a Republican or Democrat President, all of the judges before whom election cases were filed, displayed independent, reasoned judgment unfettered by political ties, pressure or influence. And the Supreme Court where six Justices were appointed during a Republican administration, including three chosen by President Trump, unanimously voted to dismiss two petitions questioning the election results.
“I don’t think most Americans blamed Trump for the virus. But many faulted him for the cavalier, nonchalant approach in combating it.”
Also, the Republican Governor and Secretary of State of Georgia pushed back against Trump’s efforts to interfere in their State elections. If the elections were being run by the Federal government, what would an incumbent President have done to favor his candidacy?
No doubt Biden faces gargantuan challenges. He needs to stabilize the COVID-19 situation and nurse the U.S. economy back to recovery. He has to return civility and dignity in the American political discourse. He has to reach out to Republicans especially in the Senate, if they manage to retain the majority, and at the same time appease the various factions of his coalition. He should be magnanimous and unifying but not appear to be politically weak. He will need to connect with the “better angels” of Americans’ nature that I know still exist.
Tears for Trump?
Trump may have lost the election, but he did not lose his brand. A recent 2020 Gallup Poll showed that he is the most admired man in America, displacing Barack Obama. A cult-like devotion among his supporters remains. He raised a whopping $300 million to fund his election protests. Trump will certainly not gently fade away to his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. He continues to be a viable force in the Republican Party with 71 percent still planning to vote for him if he runs again in 2024.
So, weep not for Trump, sons and daughters of America, but for your yourselves, your children and the future of your democracy.
Andres Bautista
Andres Bautista is the former chairperson of the Philippine Commission on Elections (2015-2017) and the Presidential Commission on Good Government (2010-2015). He obtained his LL.B. from Ateneo Law School and LL.M. from Harvard Law School.
