[Opinion] Impeachment: Dems Should Do an About-Face
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The Trump rally in Washington, D.C. on January 6, 2021 (Source: AP)
A peaceful assembly turned into mayhem as an angry mob, some of whom were armed, forced its way inside the Capitol. They smashed doors and broke windows. They threatened the safety of legislators. They interfered with the work of the people’s representatives. Beyond gadgets and mementos, the mob stole a part of American democracy. Their gory images will be embedded in history. So-called “patriots” pursuing a lost cause led to the people’s shining house on the hill losing some of its luster.
The violent riot that led to the death of five individuals prompted the House Democrats to draft an article of impeachment for incitement of insurrection against Trump. It was approved by 232 votes with 10 House Republicans crossing the aisle, marking the first time an article has received bipartisan support in U.S. history.
As the Senate-jurors were sworn into office on January 26, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul raised a point of order, asserting that the second Impeachment trial against former President Donald Trump was unconstitutional as Trump is no longer in office. Forty-four Republican Senators supported Paul’s view. The eventual verdict is apparent. Citizen Trump will be acquitted. If 45 Senator-jurors believe that that the process is Constitutionally flawed to begin with, how can you expect them to change their minds about the propriety of the proceedings regardless of the evidence presented during the trial? At this point, there seems to be no way to convince 67 Senators to affirm a conviction. Virginia Senator Tim Kaine’s proposal for a bipartisan resolution of censure is the best political way out. The trial will begin on February 9. There is still time for the Democrats to do an about-face.
“If Democrats want to hold Trump accountable for his actions on January 6, they would do well to abandon the impeachment efforts and to instead file the appropriate cases against him and the “other powerful people” with the regular courts. ”
The Democrats played into now Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s clever ploy. When the Senate re-convened on January 19, 2021, he took to the floor and said: “The mob was fed lies. They were provoked by the President and other powerful people, and they tried to use fear and violence to stop a specific proceeding of the first branch of the federal government which they did not like.” That seemed to be a clear signal that he wished to pursue a case against Trump and was encouraging for the House Democrats to pursue an impeachment. But with his recent vote in support of his fellow Kentucky Senator, it has become clear where he stands in respect of a conviction.
And why should McConnell or his fellow Republicans vote to convict? They certainly risk infuriating the Republican base. Those seeking re-election will incur Trump’s wrath and may face a rough primary challenge that the latter will support. Perhaps a conviction would excise Trump’s influence from the Republican base and allow the party to rebuild anew. But why should Senate Republicans spend their political capital to take on Trump at this point given his continued popularity with the party base? They would be better off waiting for Trump to self-destruct.
President Biden himself believes that the House prosecutors cannot muster the 67 votes. So why would he support the continuation of a trial that cannot be won? A loss will be an “X” mark on his new administration.
The distraction of a Senate trial will be real. President Biden should focus instead on pushing his agenda. He needs quick political wins. He has to get his Cabinet members confirmed. He needs to contain the raging Covid-19 pandemic and deliver on his promise to get 100 million vaccine shots into 100 million arms in his first 100 days. He has to build consensus for his bold $1.9 trillion relief and recovery package. He needs to deal with immigration reform. He needs to deliver on his ambitious climate change vision. Clearly, he has enough divisive items to tackle on his plate.
And what about his promise of promoting unity and bringing the country back together? President Biden has stated he wants to lower the political temperature and minimize the polarizing vitriol. There is logic behind the argument that there can be no unity without accountability. But can Democrats find accountability in an acquittal? Granted there is a pedagogic value in a public trial, yet any result will only incense both sides. The winners will gloat while the losers will sulk. Disunity will only worsen.
If Democrats want to hold Trump accountable for his actions on January 6, they would do well to abandon the impeachment efforts and to instead file the appropriate cases against him and the “other powerful people” with the regular courts. Leave the question of culpability to the judicial process. An acquittal in the Senate will dampen any efforts to prosecute him elsewhere. Instead of being portrayed as a political bully, he will come out as a martyr. And regardless of how the White House spins the outcome or distances itself from the impeachment trial, a Trump acquittal will be seen as an early setback for the Biden Presidency.
The Democrats can still reverse direction or their loss will be about face.
Andres D. Bautista
Andres D. Bautista served as chairperson of the Philippine Commission on Elections (2015-2017) and Presidential Commission on Good Government (2010-2015).
The opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of this publication.
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