Is the Return of the Marcoses a Sure Thing?
/Should the Marcos-Duterte team already uncork the champagne and, well, start thinking about who would compose their Cabinet and who would be appointed to over 3,000 positions in the bureaucracy after taking their oath of office on June 30?
Not so fast.
Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. and running mate Sara Duterte
While the two oldest survey firms in the country, Social Weather Stations and Pulse Asia, have reported basically the same survey results: that Marcos Jr. is the preferred presidential candidate of 60 percent of respondents over Vice President Leni Robredo, and vice-presidential bet Sara Duterte enjoys the lead over her nearest rival, Senate President Vicente "Tito" Sotto, with more than 50 percent voter preference, the results should not be considered as cast in stone.
Why? Because the survey firms themselves concede that results of voter preference reflect sentiments at the time they were interviewed, and therefore should be seen as mere snapshots of opinions at a certain point in time that could change—and change dramatically—by Election Day itself.
In other words, the Marcos-Duterte "UniTeam," as they call themselves during this campaign, could well end up wallowing in grief instead of getting a triumphant welcome from delirious supporters in Malacañang Palace on June 30.
In the case of Marcos Jr., a victory on May 9 would mean sweet revenge for his loss to Robredo in the vice-presidential contest in 2016. He filed an electoral protest over what he claimed was cheating by the Robredo camp in certain provinces. But the Presidential Electoral Tribunal (PET) consisting of justices of the Supreme Court eventually junked his protest, with their recount even increasing Robredo's lead by several thousand votes.
Robredo's supporters are unfazed by Marcos Jr.'s commanding lead in voter preference surveys. Recent rallies in various places where tens of thousands of supporters showed up indicate that she just might be able to whittle down Marcos Jr.'s lead in public perception in the run-up to May 9—and perhaps even repeat her victory in 2016.
It's certainly going to be an uphill climb for her, however, given what seems to be a systematic effort in social media to sanitize the Marcos family's image.
Troll-Driven Narrative
Marcos Jr.'s dominance in voter preference surveys may be due in large measure to a troll army in social media that's been given clear marching orders: on the one hand, to glorify the Marcos family by denying all wrongdoing on their part; and on the other, to demonize Vice President Leni Robredo, his main rival in the current presidential race.
The first track involves depicting the 21 years of the Marcos presidency since 1965 to 1986 as the “Golden Age” of Philippine economic development by citing various infrastructure projects such as roads and bridges; the implementation of land reform; and advances in agriculture, including the propagation of the Masagana 99 rice variety.
Another aspect of the narrative has been to repeat the Marcos justification for martial law in 1972 as necessary to save the nation from a communist take-over and to build a “New Society.’ It is claimed that those put in prison during martial law were all communists out to seize political power through the barrel of a gun, and that emergency rule instilled discipline among Filipinos and reduced criminality.
Yet another blatant departure from the truth is that the Marcoses were “victims” of the 1986 People Power Uprising in February 1986 as they were forced into exile in Hawaii until the death of the family patriarch in 1989.
The other side of the picture is that the trolls are now foisting the lie that Robredo won the vice-presidency in 2016 through cheating, that she has not accomplished much in the past six years of her term, and that she cannot be expected to adequately govern the country in the next six years because of alleged incompetence.
The "UniTeam"
The Marcos-Duterte tandem has adopted “Unity” as its rallying cry in its campaign. It’s called the "UniTeam" because they claim to bring together the so-called "Solid North," where the Marcoses come from, and the "Solid South," the home turf of the Dutertes.
The tandem's adoption of unity as its main sales pitch to the electorate sounds hollow as Marcos Jr. denies any wrongdoing by his family during their 21-year rule even as various cases have been filed against them in court for human rights violations and ill-gotten wealth.
Several disqualification cases against Marcos Jr. have in fact been filed by a number of petitioners for material misrepresentation in his certificate of candidacy (COC) where he declared that had not been convicted of any crime involving moral turpitude. Marcos Jr. had in fact been convicted by a Quezon City court for failure to file the proper income taxes during his term as governor of Ilocos Norte in the 1980s. Despite this, the poll body dismissed two of the three disqualification cases against him, allowing him to pursue his presidential bid this year.
It should also be pointed out that Bongbong Marcos cannot enter the United States today as he faces pending court cases related to the family's alleged ill-gotten wealth.
[http://www.positivelyfilipino.com/magazine/would-a-president-junior-be-able-to-come-to-the-us]
The UniTeam standard bearer and his teammate Sara Duterte have rejected most invitations to take part in public debates to articulate their stand on vital issues, such as corruption, the war on drugs, and the territorial dispute with Beijing in the South China Sea. They say they prefer to make person-to person contacts at the ground level. Marcos Jr. has said he has decided to not participate because he would rather campaign than attend the debate and “repeat and repeat the same thing” until the debates get “personal.”
But critics point out that their refusal to take part in public debates with other candidates is grounded on real fear that they may not be able to adequately explain their position on crucial issues, especially those that could prove too delicate to handle, such as corruption during the Marcos regime on the part of Marcos Jr., and on the part of Sara Duterte, the extrajudicial killings in Davao City during her father's term as Mayor and as Philippine president since 2016.
Sara Duterte served as Mayor of Davao City before agreeing to run for vice president. She had been expected to seek the presidency in the May polls, with politicians from various regions endorsing her candidacy, but she had denied any intention of doing so. During her term as Mayor, she was caught on camera punching in the face a court sheriff who was implementing a legal order to demolish of homes of urban poor families. She explained that she did so after the sheriff ignored her order to postpone the demolition. In so doing, she as a lawyer forgot that there is such a thing as due process.
The UniTeam's senatorial slate can hardly be called among the best and the brightest in the country. There's a party-list congressman who was among those who pushed for the rejection of the renewal of the legislative franchise of the media conglomerate ABS-CBN for alleged non-payment of taxes when in fact the Bureau of Internal Revenue had certified that the firm had no pending tax obligations. There's also a notoriously foul-mouthed lawyer who has been suspended twice by the Supreme Court for violations of ethical conduct among the members of the Philippine Bar. A former senator still has a pending plunder case before the courts; his father had been convicted of plunder but was pardoned by his successor whose administration also figured in alleged high-profile corruption cases. And there's an action star now among the top 12 in recent surveys whose capability to engage in intelligent debate on vital issues up for consideration by the Senate, such as foreign policy, is in serious doubt.
The Robredo Campaign
Leni Robredo and running mate Francis "Kiko" Pangilinan
While Robredo's ratings in recent surveys hover at the 15 percent mark compared with Marcos Jr.'s 50-60 percent, her rallies in various areas of the country indicate growing support for her presidential bid.
[https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1571068/leni-kiko-pasig-rally-draws-biggest-crowd-so-far]
Robredo's provincial sorties have attracted tens of thousands of supporters. In Bulacan province, she managed to attract some 45,000 followers. In Negros Occidental in the Visayas, her grand rally drew 75,000 participants. In Cavite, the same number of supporters heard her and her vice presidential candidate Sen. Kiko Pangilinan and senatorial bets discuss current issues and how a Robredo presidency would be the complete opposite of the Duterte administration.
Robredo's growing support as shown in big numbers of ordinary Filipinos attending her provincial sorties has apparently sown fear in the minds of her political adversaries, so much so that they have raised the communist bogey and charged that she has been getting support not only from the so-called "dilawan" or "Yellow" forces identified with the Aquino family and the Liberal Party, but also from the mainstream Left and even the New People's Army (NPA).
President Duterte also chimed in, saying that Robredo had established a tie-up with the "dilawans" and the communists, possibly to disrupt the upcoming national and local elections. He blurted out that he is “really afraid” the information he received from the National Intelligence Committee supposedly about the “working relations” between the so-called “dilawans” and the communist rebels.
But the Vice President has categorically denied any links with communist groups. “Once and for all: Left, right, up, down — we are ready to listen to everyone, as long as they are ready to work to uplift the lives of Filipinos,” she said. She clarified that she did not believe in violence as a solution to problems and that she would oppose anyone who would use force to push their agenda.
“I will not form an alliance with such people or those who believe in them. My priority is to work in a peaceful way for the dignity of every person, for the empowered and responsible exercise of freedoms, and fairness,” she said.
The Rest of the Field
Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso
The rest of the presidential bets are lagging far behind in voter preference at this stage of the game.
Manila Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso has been barnstorming throughout the country vowing to replicate what he has accomplished in the capital city in terms of prompt response to the COVID-19 pandemic, housing for the poor, modernization of public education facilities, and clearing of sidewalks. But he has said he would not allow the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate Duterte for alleged crimes against humanity in the course of the latter's bloody war on drugs and he would be glad to get the endorsement of the president. This has prompted critics to suspect that his candidacy may be covertly supported by Malacañang particularly since posters endorsing Isko-Sara have surfaced in some places.
Manny Pacquiao
Senator Manny Pacquiao's ranking in recent surveys has not improved beyond 8 percent, but he is optimistic that his popularity as a world boxing legend and public perception that he is sincere in wanting to put an end to pervasive poverty in the country could earn him more votes in the remaining months of the campaign period. Supporters worry, however, if he can sustain a nationwide campaign using his own money since financial contributions aren't likely to come in given his single-digit ranking in recent surveys. He has vowed to launch a sustained campaign against poverty and corruption if elected president.
Panfilo Lacson and and running mate Tito Sotto
Senator Panfilo Lacson has teamed up with Senate President Tito Sotto to push a platform anchored on good governance and a no-nonsense drive against corruption. He says he is “not bothered” by his 2 percent score in the latest survey, that he believes his performance in interviews and forums should have gained support for his candidacy. Nevertheless, he vowed to continue with “this fight all the way to Election Day." The former top cop emphasized: "Surveys are not elections. Last time I heard, election is on May 9. I’m not bothered at all simply because the numbers I feel on the ground are different from what the surveys indicate.”
The Partido Laban ng Masa has fielded labor leader Leody de Guzman as its presidential bet and internationally-renowned scholar-activist Walden Bello as vice presidential candidate. The two have crafted a political platform that, among others, vows to impose a hefty wealth tax on the top 50 richest Filipinos—the bourgeoisie—to conquer poverty and generate more funds for economic and social development.
Leody de Guzman
Dire Prospects
Less than two months to go before the crucial May 9 elections, with survey results showing Marcos Jr. leading the pack of presidential bets, there's very real fear of a reprise of the dictatorship imposed by Marcos Sr. over the nation for 14 long years.
The coming political exercise could offer an opportunity for a new administration to being about sweeping change from the authoritarian rule of a foul-mouthed and vindictive president who quite possibly faces investigation by the ICC for crimes against humanity once he steps drown from office on June 30.
But a Marcos Jr. presidency looming on the horizon sends chills of apprehension down the spines of those who fought martial law starting in 1972 until the EDSA People Power Revolt restored the democratic space in the country.
“Robredo’s growing support as shown in big numbers of ordinary Filipinos attending her provincial sorties has apparently sown fear in the minds of her political adversaries.”
Former Senator Serge Osmeña, who was imprisoned by Marcos Sr. during martial law, has warned that Marcos Jr. has not achieved anything as governor, congressman, and senator. So why elect him as president of this country, no less, he asked.
The former lawmaker told Rappler online news: “He could reverse everything what we have been doing for the past 30 years. Will he give the coco levy back to the cronies? Everything that his cronies surrendered, will he return them to the cronies?” referring to the sequestered assets of Marcos cronies.
“So, what happens, do we reverse everything the PCGG (Presidential Commission on Good Government) did? Or whitewash the sins of Ferdinand Marcos? Because I can point to hundreds, even thousands, of torture victims. There were thousands of other victims of injustice.”
The former lawmaker is not alone in expressing dread over another Marcos occupying the palace by the Pasig River for the next six years. Others have endorsed Robredo's presidential run, including prominent economists; former high government officials in previous administrations; retired military and police officials; members of the academe; the religious; youth and women, among others.
If Robredo's campaign gathers momentum in the coming weeks and surveys indicate a steady climb from now until April, then Filipinos can prevent another dark period in our contemporary history from taking place—and move towards a new dispensation that will uphold respect for human rights, due process, and the rule of law.
Ernesto M. Hilario studied Political Science at the University of the Philippines and has worked for various government agencies, NGOs and mainstream media since 1978. He writes a regular column for the Manila Standard broadsheet and also works as a freelance writer-editor.
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