How to Win a Philippine Presidential Election
/There are four essential elements to a successful campaign.
First, the candidate must represent a trait or a cause that is transformed into a slogan and/or story that people can relate to. A common strategy is to be seen as an ordinary Juan (or Juana) de La Cruz who identifies with a majority of the voters. Hence in 1953, Ramon Magsaysay used the tagline “Magsaysay is my guy.” Diosdado Macapagal identified himself as the “Poor Boy from Lubao” in 1961, while Joseph Estrada successfully employed “Erap Para sa Mahirap” (Erap is for the poor) in 1998. In 1957, Senator Manuel Manahan tried to replicate Magsaysay’s victory with his “Manahan Is My Man” slogan, but that was defeated by Carlos Garcia’s nationalistic “Filipino First” mantra.
Ramon Magsaysay on the campaign trail (Source: The Presidential Museum and Library)
A variation of the identification strategy is the “rags to riches” story. Senator Manny Villar tried this route in 2010 with his “Sipag at Tiyaga” (Hard Work and Perseverance) catchphrase. Villar’s opponents rebuffed him with “Trapos to Riches” (trapos is short for traditional politicians but which in Spanish means rags) land deal tale. The “Poor Man Made Good” narrative is being used by 2022 presidential contenders Isko Moreno and Manny Pacquiao.
In 1965, Ferdinand Marcos proclaimed as his cause: “This nation can be great again.” After declaring Martial Law, he decreed the New Society edict of “Sa ikauunlad ng bayan, disiplina ang kailangan” (For the nation’s progress, discipline is necessary). However, it did not apply to government borrowings and family buyings. Fifty years later, Donald Trump would take a page from the Marcos playbook with his MAGA (Make America Great Again) rallying cry.
Defeating corruption and abuse of power was the signature cause of the Aquinos. “Tama Na, Sobra Na, Palitan Na” (Enough Is Enough! Time for Change!) was Cory’s battle cry in the 1986 snap elections. “Kung Walang Corrupt, Walang Mahirap” (If No One Is Corrupt No One Will Be Poor) was Benigno Aquino III’s compelling shibboleth, which helped secure his convincing 2010 win. Unfortunately, his “Kayo Ang Boss Ko” (You Are My Boss) pronouncement during his inaugural address did not seem to resonate with the majority. This was surprising as this theme encapsulates the essence of democracy. In stark contrast, his successor projected an iron fist image of a leader lording it over his subjects. I wonder if the concept of servant leadership is anathema to contemporary Philippine culture. Do we, as a people, cling to a servant’s mentality, preferring to be subservient to the powers that be?
“Tama Na, Sobra Na, Palitan Na” (Enough Is Enough! Time for Change!) was Cory Aquino’s campaign slogan during the 1986 snap elections. (Source: Reddit)
Strong leadership was indeed the theme of Rodrigo Duterte's successful 2016 campaign with his “Tapang at Malasakit” (Courage and Compassion) slogan, although his administration exhibited more of the ruthless former than the kinder latter.
A successful political brand must appeal to the voter in a personal or emotional way. And the candidate must be seen as authentically exemplifying the cause or trait.
The second element is communication. In the ancient democracies, information was conveyed by word of mouth in households and neighborhoods. Then the people converged in the agora or plaza to exchange ideas or hear someone speak. With the advent of technology, the tri-media platforms of print, radio, and television were developed. The fireside radio chats were instrumental in getting Franklin Delano Roosevelt elected four times. The 1960 televised debate showing a serious, scowling Richard Nixon versus a suave, smiling John Kennedy highlighted the different demeanors of the two candidates. Similarly, a seemingly impatient George Bush Sr. looking at his watch during the presidential town hall debate with an empathetic Bill Clinton proved to be a defining moment in the 1992 elections.
In the Philippines, radio and television historically reigned supreme with the main “declared” expense being the advertisements placed in prime time programs.
The emergence of social media has game-changed the political landscape. More and more people tune in to Facebook, YouTube, Instagram, Twitter, and TikTok. Blogs are read like columns. Podcasts are listened to like radio. Vlogs and YouTube channels are viewed like tele-radio programs. Memes and community pages are widespread. Influencers compete with talk show hosts. While this digital burst has democratized sources of information, it also has created a wild jungle for fake news to flourish. Indeed the distinction between earned media (i.e. news) and paid media has blurred.
Social media communication is a game-changer in Philippine politics (Source: ABS-CBN News)
In his 1644 treatise Areopagitica, English scholar John Milton posited that restricting speech was unnecessary because "in a free and open encounter" truth would prevail. Unfortunately the marketplace of ideas is no longer free or open. It has been hijacked by fake news. In this day and age, is it the truth, or the moneyed and continually repeated idea, that prevails?
The third element is the capability to get people to actually vote. In the U.S, there are elaborate GOTV (get out the vote) operations, which include volunteers knocking on doors, working phone banks or shuttling voters to the polling precincts. In the Philippines, you are either an earned or a paid voter. If the former, then you will proceed to vote on your own. If the latter, you will be herded to the polls by the local government or party official that paid you. In this regard, the administration candidates possess a distinct advantage. And in a pandemic situation, this political machinery is critical.
Getting people out to vote will be critical (Photo by Lisa Marie David/bworldonline.com)
The fourth element needs no introduction -- money. It speaks for itself. And loudly during an election. A candidate needs a lot of it to sell the story, cultivate, and coordinate the communication campaign, and fuel the field operations.
“Indeed the distinction between earned media (i.e. news) and paid media has blurred. ”
The current survey numbers show that the resources poured over the last several years in a massive digital rebranding, rehabilitation, and historical revisionist campaign by the early frontrunner have borne fruit. Notwithstanding unanimous Supreme Court decisions to the contrary, the big lie that the 2016 vice presidential election was rigged persists. But the contest is not over. Candidates cannot live by brand alone. Front runners have faltered in the past. Games are not won at half-time. The team ahead cannot run the clock the entire second half. You cannot punt all the time. Achilles’ heels can be exploited. Hail Marys are not to be discounted. Next week, let’s explore suggestions on how to mount a comeback.
Before serving as chairperson of the Philippine Commission on Elections (2015-17) and Presidential Commission on Good Government (2010-15) the agency tasked to recover the Marcos ill-gotten wealth, Andy Bautista worked with two international law firms in New York and Hong Kong (1993-2006). He also served as dean of the Far Eastern University Institute of Law (1999-2013).
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